Breast cancer is the most common cancer worldwide among women, as well as the second most common cancer overall. A recent comprehensive report shows that, if current trends continue, its impact will be felt even more.

The World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) examined data on current breast cancer statistics, as well as projections for 2050, in a new paper published in the journal Nature Medicine. There was data from 185 countries, roughly 50 of which had high-quality, population-level figures on incidence and mortality. Here are some of the key findings.

Current Trends

The paper showed that, currently, about 1 in 20 women across the globe will be diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime, while about 1 in 70 will die from it. In 2022, there were 2.3 million cases and 670,000 deaths. These figures vary substantially based on where a person lives, however.

Incidence is highest in Australia and New Zealand (with about 100 new cases per 100,000 women), followed by North America and Northern Europe. The lowest incidence rates, meanwhile, are in South-Central Asia (about 27 cases per 100,000 women) and Middle and Eastern Africa. Higher rates in high-income countries are likely due to in part to more exposure to known risk factors like alcohol consumption and lower physical activity levels.

When it comes to deaths, though, the highest rates are in Melanesia (about 27 per 100,000 women), Polynesia, and Western Africa. On the other end of the spectrum, the lowest mortality figures are found in Eastern Asia (about seven deaths per 100,000 women), Central America, and North America. 

There is a stark difference in survival based on a country’s income level. In high-income countries, about 83% of patients survive, compared with 44% in low-income countries. The researchers say this is likely linked with inequities in early detection, timely diagnosis, and access to comprehensive breast cancer management.

The age of breast cancer patients who survive and who die also vary by country. Globally, 71% of new cases and 79% of deaths are in women 50 and older. However, those under 50 make up 47% of cases in Africa, 22% in Oceania, 19% in Europe, and 18% in North America. Africa also fares poorly in survival among this age group, as 41% of overall breast cancer deaths on the continent occur in patients under 50, compared with just 8% in Europe.

Projections for 2050

The report notes that breast cancer rates went up between 1% and 5% each year from 2008 through 2017 in 27 of 50 countries, mostly in those with higher incomes. At the same time, though, mortality went down in 29 of 46 countries but went up in seven. 

Based on current trends, IARC says by 2050, breast cancer rates will increase by 38%, while deaths will rise by 68%. This translates to 3.2 million new cases and 1.1 million deaths annually. The projected increase is likely due to factors like a growing and aging population, improvements to detection and diagnosis, and more exposure to risk factors. However, the report warns that the impact will be the most significant in low- and middle-income countries that lack ready access to early detection and treatment.

Dr. Isabelle Soerjomataram, Deputy Head of IARC’s Cancer Surveillance Branch, says, “Continued progress in early diagnosis and improved access to treatment are essential to address the global gap in breast cancer and ensure that the goal of reducing suffering and death from breast cancer is achieved by all countries worldwide.”

What’s Being Done

The World Health Organization launched its Global Breast Cancer Initiative in 2021 to help address the global burden of the disease. It focuses on early detection, timely diagnosis, and access to quality treatment, in an effort to lower breast cancer mortality by 2.5% each year. If successful, the initiative could save about 2.5 million lives by 2040. 

IARC also notes that this comprehensive study shows the need for stronger health systems, more funding for breast cancer screening and treatment, and more cost-effective prevention policies.